The Current Coup Attempt in Chad and What to Expect in 2025 Sahel: Coups, Counter-Coups and Protests

By Fidel Amakye Owusu

The current coup attempt in Chad and what to expect in 2025 Sahel: coups, counter-coups and protests.

1. In early 2020, it was apparent that rebels operating in northern Chad were unstoppable in their attempt to reach the capital, N’Djamena.

2. The country’s then president Idris Déby, resolved to move up north to lead his forces—physically. Eventually, the long-time leader was shot and died of his wound.

3. Almost immediately, his son, Mahamat Déby who was leading an elite force took over the reins of power with the help of some top generals of the military. This was a breach of the constitution of the country which had the speaker of the national assembly as next in line of succession.

4. Technically, Mahamat had staged a coup and succeeded. Subsequently, he ran for elections in a process that was significantly designed to disadvantage the opposition. Before the elections, a major opposition leader was killed.

5. And so, what?

6. A couple of days ago, an attack on the presidential palace in N’Djamena which was foiled by security forces guarding the premises sends a signal that should not only be of concern to Chadian authorities but the wider western Sahel region of Africa.

7. Why?

8. After a chain of coups in West Africa that started in 2020, the Sahel region currently has military regimes controlling Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. In coastal West Africa, Guinea is also controlled by a junta.

9. Firstly, the internal dynamics in these junta-led countries create a situation where different interests and factions, (including the juntas) pursue parochial goals. With this, counter-coups are likely to be common in the coming months. For the indifferent interests, power is viewed as a zero-sum game that benefits those who are in control.

10. Secondly, in many of these countries, the militaries as institutions are not necessarily united behind the current rulers. This intra-institutional rivalry means more counter-coups. The current junta in Burkina Faso has foiled several coup attempts in the past months.

11. Also, the fact that these countries have become important in the great power scramble for Africa makes external interests in who leads them significantly confrontational. In the last years, France has lost significant “ground” in the region. Russia is consequently becoming more influential.

12. This factor could directly or indirectly fuel counter-coups and protests, depending on who is being supported by these powers.

13. Moreover, the bridling of the opposition and the absence of a transition process has rendered the political class hopeless. This is likely to lead to protests that could have dangerous ramifications.

14. Way forward?

15. For relative stability in the region, the respective military and civilian governments need to be tolerant and conciliatory towards the different interests and factions.

#Africa #security #intelligence DefSEC Analytics Africa Ltd unival group GmbH

By Fidel Amakye Owusu – International Relations and Security Analyst and Writer

Article Reproduced with Permission from Fidel Amakye Owusu

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